Cincinnati Bengals star quarterback Joe Burrow suffered a strained calf injury during training camp last week and is questionable moving forward.
Although Burrow avoided initial concern that he suffered a torn Achilles, the Bengals’ season and futures betting odds are still likely to be affected, especially if the fourth-year pro is set to miss games.
Joe Burrow injury impact on Bengals futures: Cincinnati Super Bowl odds intact (+1000 or better)
The Bengals’ Super Bowl odds (+1000, tied for fourth-best) have not changed since Burrow went down clutching his lower leg last week -- but to say that the oddsmakers are not waiting with a hair trigger would be misguided.
The NFL is a quarterback’s league, and at the slightest notice that Burrow will miss significant time or doesn’t look like himself, the Bengals’ odds will lengthen.
If Burrow truly did only tweak his calf, then there’s no need to panic. But if it’s a bad strain, or there is damage to his Achilles, the outlook drastically worsens.
The Bengals start with AFC North rivalry matchups against the Browns and Ravens and will be in a real hole to start the year if Burrow can’t go by Week 1.
2023 AFC championship predictions: Bengals still hold third best odds for conference title (+500 or better)
Once again, the severity of Burrow’s injury will determine the degree to which the AFC odds evolve. As it stands, the Bengals are third in AFC odds at +500, trailing only the Chiefs (+350) and Bills (+450).
The Bengals made it to the AFC Championship Game in each of the last two seasons and won the conference in 2021.
They also made an aggressive decision to keep Tee Higgins rather than trade him (since they likely won’t be able to re-sign him next season), which shows their intent to compete for a conference and league championship again this season.
A major injury to Burrow would effectively doom their chances at achieving anything beyond the ordinary.
But as it stands, the oddsmakers are not budging on their stance and believe that Burrow and the Bengals will be top contenders in the AFC.
AFC North odds after Burrow injury: Bengals still favored to win division (+145 or better)
The AFC North is arguably the toughest top-to-bottom division in the entire league. That’s why the Bengals potentially starting 0-2 without Burrow (or with a beat-up, hampered version of him) could be so catastrophic for their postseason prospects.
The Ravens (+220) and Steelers (+490) got definitively better over the offseason, and the Browns (+380) could rapidly ascend if Deshaun Watson can regain the form he had as a member of the Houston Texans.
Check out our odds and best bets for the AFC North division ahead of the 2023 NFL season.
If Burrow ends up missing the first two games, the Bengals have a few favorable matchups that follow (Rams, Titans, Cardinals), but after that, they get the Seahawks, 49ers and Bills in three straight games.
Even if he’s back by then, that’s a tough run for anyone playing at less than 100% of their abilities.
Cincinnati Bengals win total props: Over/Under 11.5 wins remains the number (-110 or better)
The Bengals’ win total, just like the other betting markets, is unchanged. The 11.5 is a tough hurdle to clear even with a healthy Burrow, seeing as Cincy won 12 games last year and 10 the year before.
The 11.5 line is tied for the highest in the league. At this moment, the under feels like a better prospect than the over because of the likelihood that Burrow is not himself to start the regular season against two tough defenses.
The AFC North is also going to beat up on itself and should prevent any team from amassing a dominant record.
Bengals fans (and bettors) are going to need the playmaking of Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon and others to hold down the offense in case Burrow misses time or is limited.
They’ll also need to count on a defense that ranked Top 5 in points allowed but also lost both starting safeties and a starting corner over the offseason.
Bengals futures odds after Joe Burrow injury
- Cincinnati Super Bowl odds intact (+1000 or better)
- 2023 AFC championship predictions: Bengals still hold third best odds for conference title (+500 or better)
- AFC North odds after Burrow injury: Bengals still favored to win division (+145 or better)
- Cincinnati Bengals win total props: Over/Under 11.5 wins remains the number (-110 or better)
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Grant is a Virginia-based writer for Catena Media who graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 with a degree in sports media & analytics. He has contributed to well-known publications such as Forbes, appeared on the VSiN TV network. You can keep up with Grant's work here or by checking out his YouTube channel "The Sitch With Grant Mitchell.”