The Indianapolis Colts take on the Buffalo Bills in an NFL preseason Week 1 matchup Saturday afternoon, and we’ve picked out our favorite betting odds from the game.
Colts vs. Bills preseason odds: Bills +5 (-110 or better)
Betting on the NFL preseason is far from a perfect science, but it often comes down to the productivity of the quarterbacks (just as regular-season betting does).
Although the Bills are the third-largest underdogs of the week, we believe they are in a better position at quarterback and thereby in a position to cover the spread.
Buffalo will trot out Kyle Allen and Matt Barkley, as starter Josh Allen most likely won't play, while the Colts will roll with Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew and Sam Ehlinger.
The Colts are expected to start Richardson but could still put in Minshew with the first-stringers if they choose. Either way, Richardson will be under strict instruction not to run, and his ability as a pure passer was a major question heading into the draft.
Ehlinger has not worked out in the NFL and Minshew probably won’t see a ton of time on the field. Kyle Allen and Barkley aren't amazing but they are competent, and Buffalo is an otherwise deeper team than the Colts are.
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Colts vs. Bills best bets: Bills moneyline (+175 or better)
We already talked about the quarterback situation, but let’s look at the rest of the rosters. The Bills' second- and third-stringers on the front seven are better than the Colts’ -- especially with Tim Settle, A.J. Epenesa and others.
The Bills’ secondary also looks better on paper than the Colts, especially further down the depth chart. Neither team is great with secondary playmakers, but the Colts are already down Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss.
This game is also in Buffalo, where the Bills have gone 7-1, 6-3 and 7-1 in the last three seasons.
We like them to win this game and love the value behind the pick.
Colts vs. Bills over/under pick: Over 39.5 points (-110 or better)
The preseason is not always a boring, low-scoring affair.
The Colts averaged 25.7 points per game in the 2022 preseason, while the Bills were close behind at 23. Granted, Buffalo was shut out in one game, but they were ultra-conservative with their player usage in that instance.
Because of the QB competence in Buffalo and the battle for reps in Indy, we believe both offenses will be able to put points on the board even with limited playbooks.
We’re still sticking with the Bills to cover and win, but see this one ending somewhere in the 40s or 50s for total points.
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Grant is a Virginia-based writer for Catena Media who graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 with a degree in sports media & analytics. He has contributed to well-known publications such as Forbes, appeared on the VSiN TV network. You can keep up with Grant's work here or by checking out his YouTube channel "The Sitch With Grant Mitchell.”