As training camp approaches, all eyes are on the upcoming NFL season. And with it, we turn our attention toward our 2023 NFL win-total best bets.
Below are our five favorite NFL win-total predictions for the 2023 season.
2023 Kansas City Chiefs win total picks: Over 11.5 (-134 or better)
There’s a reason why Kansas City is the upcoming Super Bowl favorite just months removed from a championship.
For as long as Patrick Mahomes is the starting quarterback for the Chiefs, they’re going to be in Super Bowl contention. And with that comes high expectations for the regular season.
Recently, Kansas City has made quick work of its division. It didn’t lose a single game to an AFC West opponent last year. Expect the same story this season.
Last year, Kansas City faced off against eight teams that ended up making the postseason. It lost two of those contests by a combined 7 points.
This year, the Chiefs have the 16th hardest schedule. Eight of their 17 opponents made the playoffs last season. It’s not a difficult schedule by any means when looking at the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs odds.
NFL win total bets: Dallas Cowboys Under 9.5 wins (+124 or better)
We’ve talked about two teams that will over perform their win totals. Now it’s time to pump the brakes on one.
The Cowboys made some nice additions this offseason, acquiring wideout Brandin Cooks and defensive back Stephon Gilmore. But will that be enough to overcome a tough slate?
Nine of Dallas’ 17 games come against teams that made the playoffs a season ago. Six of those games are road contests. Those nine matchups don’t include games against the Jets (led by Rodgers) and a Lions team that should be the favorite to win their division.
As a whole, the NFC East got better last season. That matters when you look at the 2023 Dallas Cowboys odds. The Eagles raced through the conference and the Giants proved their validity with a playoff run of their own.
It’s been the story in years past, but there will likely be plenty of parity in the NFC East this season. Combined with a schedule tied for fourth-toughest in the league, and you’ve got a recipe for a record regression in 2023.
2023 NFL win total picks: Green Bay Packers over 7.5 wins (-122 or better)
We’re buying into the Jordan Love hype train here as we consider the 2023 Green Bay Packers odds.Â
Love looked sharp in limited time last season, and with Aaron Rodgers no longer with the Packers, the team is his to command. Expect a heavy dose of running backs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon this season to help balance the offense.
Green Bay, with a banged up Rodgers and tough schedule, still managed to win eight games last season. Five of its nine losses were one-score games.
The team will still be competitive under Love. And if he’s as good as advertised, the Packers will surpass their win totals for this season.
Green Bay’s 2023 opponents combined for a .475 win percentage last season. That equates to the ninth-easiest schedule this year in the league.
2023 NFL win total predictions:Â New Orleans Saints over 9.5 wins (+120 or better)
Sticking with new starting quarterbacks, Derek Carr will make his New Orleans Saints debut this season after spending the last nine years with the Las Vegas/Oakland Raiders.
Carr proved to be a solid starting quarterback. And that’s something New Orleans has been searching for since Drew Brees retired.
The NFC is completely up for grabs. That’s going to factor into this team’s win total in 2023. The Saints will be going up against a Panthers team with a rookie quarterback, a Buccaneers team without Tom Brady and a Falcons team that has more questions than answers at QB.
In terms of opponent win percentage, New Orleans has the second easiest slate of games this season. All things to consider when looking at the 2023 New Orleans Saints odds.Â
NFL win totals 2023: Denver Broncos win total under 8.5 (-132 or better)
Surely the Broncos will improve after a disastrous 2022 campaign?
That’s what fans hope, at least, under new head coach Sean Payton. Payton has a proven track record, and so does quarterback Russell Wilson.
The reason question, though, is whether the pair will mesh in their first season together. It's difficult to gauge when weighing the 2023 Denver Broncos odds.Â
2022 was a season in which fans would love to forget. The offense, which on paper looked like one that just needed a capable quarterback before Wilson’s arrival, flopped. The Broncos averaged a league-worst 16.9 points per game.
Chances are this team is better. Especially with a veteran head coach with a proven track record.
Much like the Chiefs’ schedule, the Broncos don’t have a daunting slate ahead in 2023 (tied for 12th-toughest schedule). But it will be tough to completely turn around this team in just one season.
Top five 2023 NFL win total picks and predictions
- Kansas City Chiefs Over 11.5 wins (-134 or better)
- Dallas Cowboys Under 9.5 wins (+124 or better)
- Green Bay Packers Over 7.5 wins (-122 or better)
- New Orleans Saints Over 9.5 wins (+120 or better)
- Denver Broncos Under 8.5 wins (-132 or better)
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Adam Hensley is a writer for Catena Media based out of Iowa. Since graduating from the University of Iowa in 2019 with a degree in journalism and sports studies, he worked for a variety of publications including Sports Illustrated, the Associated Press and the USA Today Network. He spends his time watching the NBA and both college and professional football.
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